MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau announced La Niña Watch on Tuesday, August 26, saying that the phenomenon could happen in the last part of 2025.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) declares La Niña Watch when the probability of La Niña developing in the tropical Pacific within six months is at least 55%.
During La Niña, the Philippines gets “an above-average number” of tropical cyclones, and there are “above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country.”
“ENSO-neutral is most likely to persist until the August-September-October 2025 season. However, model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the September-October-November season until the October-November-December season,” PAGASA said on Tuesday.
ENSO refers to El Niño Southern Oscillation, which the World Meteorological Organization defines as “a recurring natural phenomenon characterized by fluctuating ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere.”
ENSO has three phases: El Niño or the warm phase, La Niña or the cool phase, and neutral.
Conditions in the tropical Pacific have been at ENSO-neutral levels since April. Prior to that, there was a weak La Niña in the first quarter of 2025.
ALSO ON RAPPLER
- Marcos sacks PNP chief Nicolas Torre III
- Jose Melencio Nartatez Jr. is new PNP chief
- Historic US Open debut sinks in as Alex Eala sets sights on 2nd round
- How Bela Padilla’s film ‘Last Night’ continues to make an impact years after its release
Given that La Niña would bring more rain to parts of the country, floods and landslides would also be possible.
“All concerned agencies and the public are encouraged to continue monitoring and take precautionary measures against…potential impacts,” PAGASA said.
So far, the Philippines has had nine tropical cyclones in 2025. The country’s yearly average is 20. – Rappler.com